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. 2018 Feb 9;9(1):605.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-02954-1.

Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations

Paul S Kench  1 , Murray R Ford  2 , Susan D Owen  2
Affiliations

Patterns of island change and persistence offer alternate adaptation pathways for atoll nations

Paul S Kench et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

Sea-level rise and climatic change threaten the existence of atoll nations. Inundation and erosion are expected to render islands uninhabitable over the next century, forcing human migration. Here we present analysis of shoreline change in all 101 islands in the Pacific atoll nation of Tuvalu. Using remotely sensed data, change is analysed over the past four decades, a period when local sea level has risen at twice the global average (~3.90 ± 0.4 mm.yr-1). Results highlight a net increase in land area in Tuvalu of 73.5 ha (2.9%), despite sea-level rise, and land area increase in eight of nine atolls. Island change has lacked uniformity with 74% increasing and 27% decreasing in size. Results challenge perceptions of island loss, showing islands are dynamic features that will persist as sites for habitation over the next century, presenting alternate opportunities for adaptation that embrace the heterogeneity of island types and their dynamics.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Summary data of physical island change of islands in Tuvalu between 1971 and 2014. a Absolute changes in island area in hectares with respect to island size. b Percentage change in islands per decade with respect to island size. Raw data contained in Supplementary Data 1. Note: square symbols denote reef platform islands; solid circles denote atoll rim islands; and light blue circles enclosing symbols denote populated islands
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Summary changes in shoreline dynamics between atolls based on Digital Shoreline Analysis System analysis of island shoreline transects. a Percentage of shoreline transects experiencing erosion (blue bars) and accretion (orange bars) aggregated at the atoll scale, error bars represent maximum transect erosion and accretion in each atoll. b Net rate (orange circles) and gross rate (red squares) of shoreline movement per decade aggregated at the atoll scale. Error bars represent minimum and maximum rates within each atoll. Source data: Supplementary Data 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Examples of island change and dynamics in Tuvalu from 1971 to 2014. a Nanumaga reef platform island (301 ha) increased in area 4.7 ha (1.6%) and remained stable on its reef platform. b Fangaia island (22.4 ha), Nukulaelae atoll, increased in area 3.1 ha (13.7%) and remained stable on reef rim. c Fenualango island (14.1 ha), Nukulaelae atoll rim, increased in area 2.3 ha (16%). Note smaller island on left Teafuafatu (0.29 ha), which reduced in area 0.15 ha (49%) and had significant lagoonward movement. d Two smaller reef islands on Nukulaelae reef rim. Tapuaelani island, (0.19 ha) top left, increased in area 0.21 ha (113%) and migrated lagoonward. Kalilaia island, (0.52 ha) bottom right, reduced in area 0.45 ha (85%) migrating substantially lagoonward. e Teafuone island (1.37 ha) Nukufetau atoll, increased in area 0.04 ha (3%). Note lateral migration of island along reef platform. Yellow lines represent the 1971 shoreline, blue lines represent the 1984 shoreline, green lines represent the 2006 shoreline and red lines represent the 2014 shoreline. Images ©2017 DigitalGlobe Inc
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