Filed in archive
Global Economy
on April 12, 2011
©
williamcho
I always admired Singapore as it has built itself from a jungle-swamp to one of the richest nations (or rather city) on earth in a short time frame. Much progress is always around and the city remakes itself every decade or so (it real tears down buildings so quickly that many streets changes in 20 years).
We tried a trip to Sentosa - not long ago a sleepy, rather tranquil place which has become a flow of people streaming to and from it. Singapore has become pretty pricey (at least seen through the USD exchange rate) with prices for meals and hotels moving skywards. The city seems full of just built 'Serviced apartments' or new condos. There is no way escaping the seemingly ultra-fast growing economy (up >10%) from its 2009 crash levels. Friends we met reported rents doubling in 3-4 years and house prices in many neighborhoods reaching 20-30illion SGD! Expats who otherwise thoroughly enjoy Singapore do consider moving elsewhere just to escape the prices. Inflation has become an issue much beyond what the government reports (remember there is no real free press in Singapore).
My explanation is Chinese mainland funds making its way into the city Parking money in Singapore is an attractive option for many Chinese (if you can get the money out) as it's a friendly, Chinese speaking but not Chinese controlled environment. It's a great hedge against whatever may happens in the mainland. Real estate is often the first choice for such investors. The low interest rates on the USD may play a role too, but Singapore has no currency peg but instead actively manages the exchanges rate (but in rather wide bands).
So depending on which side of the China bet you are on - Singapore (and many other nations) may strongly correlate with the future of China. All developed economies who saw a strong growth pattern in recent years (such as Australia, New Zealand and more recently Germany) have done so because of China's driving demand. This was often THE single source of growth. So it seems in Singapore.
Should China continue to grow unimpeded by bad investments and over-leveraging of its banks - Singapore and its real estate will do great. Should China wobble, Singapore will reduce its speed and may see a crash. But the city has done a great job to diversify and has many other ways to grow - it may do better as many expect.
Filed in archive
Global Economy
on April 12, 2011
©
pedrosimoes7
Although I grew up in Europe I had never visited Portugal before and Lisbon was quite a nice surprise. It feels much more 'Atlanticist' as many other core European countries. Although rather tiny Portugal has left its mark on world history through its early and successful exploration of the seas. Vasco da Gama and many who followed him have given this country and distinct footprint. However in modern times Portugal has not been charging ahead with innovation.
We saw much of Lisbon and its great suburbs like Cascais (one of the best places to retire) and Estoril. For a traveler Portugal is a pleasant though still a bit hectic place. Traffic is rather aggressive but people are definitely not and the food is cheap and excellent. Portugal after spending more than a decade with (comparatively) strong growth has discovered that it has become pretty uncompetitive. Tax revenues have imploded and left the country (at the time of writing) to ask for an EU bailout to continue to pay it's debts.
Portugal as chosen not to leave the Euro so it can not inflate itself out of debt (as it has done in earlier busts) but instead needs to deflate slowly and painfully. Seemingly this decision is supported by much of the population who have seen the benefits of the common currency in cheap loans and affordable imports, but the support for the budget cuts is less widespread. As economist put it - Portugal suffers from sluggish growth. Wandering through Lisbon we always tried to figure out what Portugal stands for economically. What is the USP of Portugal's economy? We frankly haven't found any (major) industry that can compete with anyone on the planet. Agriculture (cork!) and tourism are strong revenue drivers but for a medium sized country that's not good enough. There are island of excellence in Portugal (Portugal features some of the cheapest and fastest Internet connectivity on the planet) but there is no major industry or service sector that 'leads the world'. Portugal (in my mind) is one more example of countries which successfully industrialized and did 'catch up' - but haven't found a 'model of excellence' that drives growth in a global economy.
But maybe that's what Portuguese want after all? People may be happy with a rather great lifestyle supported by great beaches and wonderful cuisine. GDP growth (and personal income growth) may not be such a priority. Portugal seems to be a tranquil and beautiful country which is not as much interested in the future.
We really enjoyed our time on Portugal and will be back rather sooner than later.
More to come in this series:
- Thoughts on global growth and why (most) rich economies have done so badly over the last decade
- Malaysia Country Report
- Singapore Country Report
- Indonesia Country Report
- Australia Country Report
- New Zealand Country Report
Filed in archive
Entrepreneurship
on December 22, 2006
merry christmas and Happy Holidays!
2006 was an amazing year for me personally and for this company. Coming out of nothing in 2004 - Creative Weblogging now spans the globe with almost 100 bloggers from Australia, Shanghai to Mumbai to Croatia, Germany and North and South America.
Kinkaa our other startup has raised the bar for travel search in Germany already and we plan to introduce a host of changes and features to make it THE travel search destination in Europe in the next years.
So let's celebrate the outgoing year and lets look forward to an even better 2007
A wonderful Christmas and New Year for all of you!
Torsten
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