Moldova Weighs Mobility and Firepower in Military Overhaul

Moldova’s government says it plans to phase out Soviet-era military hardware and create a fast, flexible fighting force. Experts, however, say it risks losing firepower.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has thrown into sharp relief the military position of another former Soviet republic – Moldova. The country’s pro-European president, Maia Sandu, has promised the “modernisation and continuous transformation” of the country’s tiny army, but authorities and some experts are at odds over how.

Europe’s poorest country with a population of just four million, Moldova boasts an army of some 6,500 soldiers; most of its hardware dates to the Soviet era, with some equipment 50 or 60 years old.

Since Russia went to war with Ukraine on February 24, there has been growing concern over its intentions in Transnistria, a rebel, pro-Russian region of Moldova where Moscow has maintained a military presence since a short war in the early 1990s with the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Russia has indicated it hopes to clear a path through southern Ukraine to Transnistria, injecting new urgency to a long-term plan to overhaul and beef up Moldova’s armed forces.

“The army must be capable of effectively retaliating against a potential attack from hostile forces coming from Transnistria or Russian troops,” said military analyst and former defence minister Vitalie Marinuta.

Fast and flexible

In 2020, the Military Capabilities Plan of the Moldovan National Army set down the steps Moldova would take over the following decade to modernise its defence capabilities, transitioning from Soviet-style combat systems to Western systems.

Defence Minister Antolie Nosatii wants a “mobile, modular, flexible and functional army,” ministry state secretary Valeriu Mija told BIRN.

Moldova currently spends about 0.4 per cent of its annual GDP, or just over 40 million euros, on defence, a meagre sum compared to its regional peers. The money is used up mainly by salary payments and ongoing military activities.

According to the government, the army should be able to defend the state, provide assistance in civil emergencies and participate in international peacekeeping missions.

Moldovan troops in a military exercise held on June 21, 2022, in Moldova. Photo: Moldovan Defence Ministry Facebook page

Mija said that the plan was to replace heavy, outdated military equipment with lighter, more mobile alternatives without losing firepower. Moldova will receive 40 million euros from the European Union to help out.

“For example, we want to change the current TABs [Romanian-produced armoured personnel carriers], which are heavy and fuel-consuming,” Mija told BIRN. “We have armoured infantry vehicles on cumbersome rails. We want to replace them with light and mobile equipment such as IVECO [transport vehicles] or Humvee [military trucks].”

Moldova does not plan to increase the size of the army, he said, but soldiers should be professional, not conscripts.

“We talked about increasing logistics, early warning and cyber defence.”

In terms of international collaboration, elite Moldovan troops have been training with Western states – mainly NATO member Romania – for years, with the aim of increasing “interoperability”.

Moldovan soldiers are currently part of the NATO-led peacekeeping mission in Kosovo and are due to deploy to Lebanon next year.

“If we talk about joint exercises with the Romanian army, they are excellent and useful because we get the experience of communication and interaction, given that Romania has taken the path of modernisation and transformation faster as a member of the EU and NATO,” said Mija.

‘Wrong’ approach

There is much debate in Moldova about how best to strengthen its defence.

Marinuta, the former defence minister, said new anti-aircraft systems of the kind used in Ukraine would be “the minimum necessary for the national army.”

Moldovan soldiers with Humvees were present at a military exercise on July 12, 2022, in Moldova. Photo: Moldovan army Facebook page

“We need weapons to equip small, mobile units that could fight in different circumstances,” he told BIRN. “We are talking here about firearms for infantry and light artillery. We also need drones.”

But Marinuta played down the threat from Transnistria, where there are a total of some 10,000 Russian soldiers and separatist paramilitaries.

“In the current situation, when we are dealing with a war in Ukraine and when the forces in the Transnistrian region cannot be supplied by land, sea or air, it is only political rhetoric of the separatist regime and especially of their leaders from Moscow,” he said.

Some experts question the government’s approach.

Dumitru Minzarari, a security expert and researcher at the Eastern Europe and Eurasia Department of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin, said that, based on events in Ukraine, the optimal strategy should rest on three pillars – deterrence, defence and maximising the cost to the aggressor.

Any upgrade, he said, must ensure “early warning” capability, “strong firepower and mobility.”

“Therefore, I consider the current approach of the Ministry of Defence, which seems to rely on light infantry forces, to be wrong,” Minzarari told BIRN.

“The case of Ukraine has shown that armoured vehicles can significantly reduce infantry losses, ensuring their protection; but also raising the firepower of the units, optimising the attrition of the aggressor’s forces.”

Under the current strategy, he warned, in the event of conflict Moldova would lose swathes of territory and fast.

“The Moldovan army must generate massive firepower and be very aggressive in destroying the enemy immediately at the beginning of a war,” he said. “Only in this way can a robust deterrence be ensured and raise the probability of successful protection of the territorial integrity and sovereignty.”